Impressive Work at 538.com

Over on my blog list under "Electoral Projections" is a link to a site called 538.com.

At approximately 1 p.m on Election Day I got a text message stating that the polling web site 538.com was calling the race for Obama, projecting a 6 percent win in the popular vote and 344 electoral votes.

At approximately 10 p.m. that night, Obama had 349 Electoral Votes and had a nationwide lead of--six percent in the popular vote. The numbers have changed a bit as more states finish counting, but man, that's an impressive call.

Throughout the course of the campaign, especially at the end, there was talk about inaccurate polling methods, the "Bradley effect" and any other conceivable way to discount the fact that Obama was polling well. I think the folks at 538.com prove pretty convincingly here how polls can work crazy accurate when done right.

Very Impressive Work.

Swing Baby Swing...but....

According to Politico.com, every single potential "swing state" with the exception of Indiana (damn Hoosiers) is now polling for Obama, giving him 364 electoral votes if the election were held today. Take a look.

On the other hand, I have a friend who swears that pollsters are being misled because they don't want to tell a caller they won't vote for a "brother." This actually has been studied extensively, it's called the Bradley effect. I have a hard time believing this problem is implicating every single major national poll, but the fact that it had to be studied is a problem in and of itself. Maybe we haven't come all that far...but if the polls are off by one or two percent, it may mean Obama will only get 273 electoral votes. Oh, right, you need 270 to win.