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Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Swing Baby Swing...but....


According to Politico.com, every single potential "swing state" with the exception of Indiana (damn Hoosiers) is now polling for Obama, giving him 364 electoral votes if the election were held today. Take a look.


On the other hand, I have a friend who swears that pollsters are being misled because they don't want to tell a caller they won't vote for a "brother." This actually has been studied extensively, it's called the Bradley effect. I have a hard time believing this problem is implicating every single major national poll, but the fact that it had to be studied is a problem in and of itself. Maybe we haven't come all that far...but if the polls are off by one or two percent, it may mean Obama will only get 273 electoral votes. Oh, right, you need 270 to win.

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